The Most Impossible Sports Prediction
Let’s face it: Predicting the future is pretty hard. However, betting on sports is fairly easy once you do the necessary analysis and use probabilities to figure out possible outcomes. You won’t always be right, but a good sports bettor will be right about 58% of the time. To clarify, a 58% success rate on your bets is considered a pretty good return on your betting investment. Anything in the 60% range would be fantastic.
However, something happens every year that has a 0% chance of panning out, and it is the hardest thing to predict: The Men’s NCAA Tournament. That’s right! Predicting all 63 games of March Madness is actually impossible. No one’s ever done it and the tournament’s been going on for over 80 years! Just to give you a sense, you have a better chance of winning the Mega Millions lottery AND the Powerball lottery in the same week. Specifically, a person would have a 1-in-9.2 QUINTILLION chance of perfectly predicting how the tournament will go.
So, why is it so hard? Well, besides the fact that you’d be placing a 63-leg parlay bet, which would be impossible even if it pitted the best team against the worst team every time, the nature of March Madness throws a number of wrenches into any team’s potential success. First, the whole tournament only lasts two weeks or so, meaning that there isn’t much time for rest. Second, many of the teams are playing each other for the first time all season, which adds a boatload of uncertainty into the mix. And finally, there is no such thing as homecourt advantage, so you can kiss that goodbye.
But this year’s tournament is different. Last year’s tournament was cancelled because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the first time that’s happened since World War II. And even now, the pandemic isn’t over, so there’s extra distractions that are placed in front of these college kids. So, don’t be surprised if there’s some major upsets. In fact, you should expect upsets. After all, that’s what March Madness is all about!